
Are Penny Stocks Cyclical?
Penny stocks like other investments exhibit certain cyclical behavior.
These behaviors are dependent on the following factors
Economic cycles : An economic cycle is the economic fluctuations between periods of expansion and contraction. It is also known as the business cycle and majorly affected by the interest rates, total employment, gross domestic product (GDP), and consumer spending. Economic cycles is the state of the economy as it stirs through the four phases in the cyclical pattern which are the expansion phase, peak phase, contraction phase, and trough phase. A good knowledge of economic cycles can guide investors in ascertaining the right time to put in and pull out funds considering that stocks, earnings, bonds, profits, mutual funds and ETF are directly affected by these cycles.
Industry - Specific cycles: The introduction phase, growth phase, maturity phase and decline phase are the four distinct phases of an Industry life cycle. Product development is the foundation of an Industry creation with other relevant factors including product specifications, competitors and market size. A culmination of the decline phase can be the end of an industry due to its incapacity to maintain growth. An understanding of what phase in the industry- specific cycle a company is at would strongly determine the investment approach an investor should follow.
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Market Sentiment: This factor encompasses the irrational, cognitive and emotional biases, and instinctive forces that drive an investor’s decision towards investments. Different studies have shown that most investor actions are sentimental. In the case of where sentiment is bullish, prices of securities are supposed to rise which yield steady dividend income and capital gains. Most long term investors use this strategy by trading in tandem following prevailing market sentiments and this method is called herd behavior and causes bubbles as a result of the free-rider effect.We also have the value investors who argue that the short term price movements are not an efficient representation of a company’s performance and believe that the markets are liable to momentarily overreact to information and so they prefer to go for stocks that are undervalued with respect to the intrinsic value of the company.
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